Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 178.907509 218.021487 266.847466 333.493274 424.072193 5.459576e+02 7.279982e+02
2025-01-26 141.855073 189.998359 258.661219 368.390324 549.221995 8.564949e+02 1.475567e+03
2025-02-02 119.925664 171.474810 252.336392 398.066764 679.606746 1.271351e+03 2.903242e+03
2025-02-09 104.554112 157.059378 245.717777 421.928483 812.815817 1.818941e+03 5.745595e+03
2025-02-16 92.240156 143.983103 236.612701 436.226994 935.960703 2.496744e+03 1.150091e+04
2025-02-23 82.455478 132.832226 227.526674 446.368134 1057.927660 3.370705e+03 2.465850e+04
2025-03-02 72.683172 119.736367 211.339371 434.253676 1112.298351 4.119039e+03 4.874234e+04
2025-03-09 64.863346 108.906646 197.274391 422.300517 1161.701878 4.991404e+03 1.069007e+05
2025-03-16 57.970017 98.786021 182.641686 404.077806 1179.560025 5.784154e+03 2.439234e+05
2025-03-23 56.366788 98.748037 189.799705 447.726872 1474.801748 9.729687e+03 6.449133e+06
2025-03-30 52.603777 93.750854 184.666781 454.128930 1624.382065 1.345645e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 50.016804 90.826525 183.830479 473.896750 1868.702814 2.094063e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 45.988204 84.515175 174.081802 462.920786 1951.520064 2.757169e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 45.196516 85.170845 182.109114 518.255321 2547.578521 6.788036e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 43.952831 84.622424 186.918438 565.398161 3222.990930 1.931125e+05 NaN
2025-05-04 42.419663 83.177831 188.980996 603.593435 3961.772188 7.118393e+05 NaN
2025-05-11 40.552181 80.684870 187.545513 626.633184 4655.847042 3.883130e+06 NaN
2025-05-18 38.677801 77.937517 184.826942 643.044727 5372.283620 9.894427e+07 NaN
2025-05-25 36.154332 73.308370 175.584902 623.449796 5538.013720 3.244122e+11 NaN
2025-06-01 33.887340 69.100983 167.011427 604.203223 5686.531546 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 31.627333 64.704464 157.212206 575.031978 5602.660155 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 31.515648 65.750640 164.910764 645.248553 7868.514403 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 30.270215 63.727367 162.233941 655.644995 8975.675490 NaN NaN